COVID-19 – the Corona virus

 UPDATE: March 12, 2020 

Stand by – we’re in for a ride.

The news in rapid succession. Politicians try to calm us claiming “everything is under control”. Reports from all over the world, infection, death. A media paradise.
If that would be it, one could ignore it to some degree.

But, Houston – we have a problem.

It was Friday (almost 2 weeks ago) when I noticed, that food outlets and discounter stores had shortages to outages on basic food supplies. Rice, noodles, flour, milk, tomato sauce and hygiene products such as toilet paper, kitchen- and facial tissue as well as handsoap – I am standing in front of empty shelves.
Pre-made handdesinfection solutions are unavailable in pharmacies and online stores. Questions directed at my local pharmacist just get a rolling-eyes comment. All gone – for days already. Idiots stockpiling?
Not really. Fear. Fear manifested in those, that have experienced similar situations, where things got scarce or were not available at all. Panic.
Unfortunately, their panic robs the needy of the chance to buy items, that they desperately need.

Status quo.
Today I had to fill a prescription and pick up some groceries. Toiletpaper has been restocked in most places, milk is a thing of luck (got some at a local discounter) – flour is sold out everywhere.

As a Canadian, I have lived in rural areas and was “snowed in” on occasion.
So, no deliveries to the local store, perhaps unable to make the trip to the nearest bigger town.
You just knew it to be a good idea, to have an inventory for 2 or 3 weeks. In Canada not really worth a mention – a no brainer. And this became second nature to me.

My gasstation is open 24/7!.
The Calgary Sun-reading average Joe looks at his close vicinity to discounters, superstores and gas stations and perceives himself in a sense of security. If some “event” should occur, he just heads over to the nearest gas station – they are open 24/7 after all. Right.

Am I a “conspiracy theorist”?
No, and I do not wish to be seen as a panic inducer. I look at figures and facts – and we do not have all of them yet. Down on the right of my website, there are RSS-feeds of the online knowledgesite Scinexx (in German only, sorry) – there, imho, are the most believable facts on the subject. I can also highly recommend the YT video on the Corona virus and general Virologie by Michael Osterholm:

Further facts concerning virology can also be found on this website.

A few facts (as of this writing):

• We know, that the virus has a 2-3 week incubation period.
• We know, that the virus advances primarily through droplet infection and the air we breathe – especially in enclosed spaces, rooms, etc.
• We know, that a carrier without symptoms, can transmit the virus without advance warning.
• We know, that an illness outside of the risk groups can pass with just minor discomfort.
• We know of no vaccination, medication or therapy, that can proactively combat this virus.

O.K., that said, let’s look at a situation, where we have 2 carriers, that – in their daily routine, pass the virus on to 2 more people.
In Germany, we have a population of about 80 million, that being between 2 ²⁶ to 2 ²⁷ people. In other words: At noon of the 26th day, the virus has reached everyone – theoretically. And looking at all the facts, we are pretty much defenseless.

Our “representatives” in Berlin and their scientifically educated consultants admit, that the virus will home in on about 70% of our population. That’d be 56 million people. If we calculate further, accounting for infection and fatality rates at currently 3 to 4 percent, we will eventually mourne the loss of about 2 million people, that have less stamina due to age or pre-existing conditions. I am actually part of this group. What, if it’s “only” half as many? Still one million people – unthinkable.

So, millions of people are sentenced to just die?
Well, not quite. Time (and the chance for a future vaccination) and our individual (hygiene-) habits can play in our favor and postpone the above calculation. Hygiene, Hygiene, Hygiene. Avoid crowds and close proximity to others. Perhaps a matter of survival.
Realistically: With a potential of millions of people in need of breathing equipment, isolation and medical personell, the channces of you getting any is foreseeable. Avoidance is your best bet.

What can I do, to buy myself time?
Well, the stockpilers reacted instinctively and somewhat correct. If the incubation time takes some weeks, you should be able to isolate yourself at home and be taken care of for that period of time. Food, water, meds. Get prepared. NOW.
General health. Being overweight, smoking, alcohol consumption. We all know, that all this is not good for us. A healthy diet, exercise, more water, tea, etc. instead of other drinks.
If a great number of working folks are held in quarantine (as in Italy at the moment), supply chains will be interrupted. Goods will just no longer be produced or transported to their destination – shelves stay empty. Many medication components have their sources in China, here the supply chain is already adversely and noticably affected.
Until now, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg.

The opportunists
No matter how bad things are or how bad they will get, there are always opportunists preying on the suffering of others. Hospitals are experiencing the theft of wall mounted desinfection dispensers. Breakins at pharmacies and doctors offices are to be expected. The big “A” already sports some offers of desinfection solution at 10 times the regular price.

Alternatives
Example 1: Handdesinfection: The common (not antiviral) stuff in the blue bottles sold here in Germany by Hartmann & Co. consists of 60-70 percent isopropanol und “cleansed” water. You can obtain isopropanol in “normal” quantities at your friendly pharmacy and mix your own.
I have a stock of bio-grade ethanol (spiritus), hydroperoxide and glycerin, thus I can prepare a mix according to the really simple WHO guide (World Health Organization), which has a better and skin-friendly effect. I fill this stuff into little spray bottles suitable for the car or the handbag, readily available and as a practical alternative to “soap and water” for situations, where there is no running water. I got my entire family covered that way. According to the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) in Germany, this solutions is virucidal. Please apply liberally and rub hands, fingers and nails vigorously for a minimum of 2 minutes.

Example 2: Rice: When the shelves of the discounters with the inexpensive supply of rice are wiped clean – try your local asia store. Here I got a bag of 4,5 kilos rice from my friendly chinaman.

In closing I hope, that we can escape all this “with a black eye” and with the realization, of how fragile our society is and our lives are. This should be a “wake-up-call” to all nations, that have not cared greatly about planning ahead or managed in providing adequate assistance.

If you have interest in my conversion table for the WHO guideline, just let me know in the comments below.

Stay safe.